Preseason Rankings
Boston University
Patriot League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#223
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#199
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#241
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 16.0% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 50.5% 76.5% 48.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 74.7% 55.2%
Conference Champion 10.7% 19.8% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 3.2% 10.0%
First Four2.2% 1.6% 2.3%
First Round7.4% 15.1% 6.7%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.30.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.70.1 - 1.0
Quad 20.4 - 2.40.5 - 3.3
Quad 33.0 - 6.13.5 - 9.4
Quad 411.0 - 6.014.5 - 15.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 70   @ Northeastern L 65-76 9%    
  Nov 09, 2018 124   Vermont L 64-71 37%    
  Nov 14, 2018 278   @ Albany W 69-67 47%    
  Nov 17, 2018 135   @ Eastern Michigan L 63-69 20%    
  Nov 21, 2018 280   @ Drexel W 74-72 48%    
  Nov 23, 2018 140   @ Rutgers L 63-69 21%    
  Nov 28, 2018 316   @ New Hampshire W 69-64 59%    
  Dec 01, 2018 231   @ Elon W 71-70 41%    
  Dec 04, 2018 306   Umass Lowell W 79-74 75%    
  Dec 13, 2018 276   @ Dartmouth W 70-68 48%    
  Dec 15, 2018 263   Nicholls St. W 76-74 67%    
  Dec 21, 2018 299   Bethune-Cookman W 81-77 72%    
  Jan 02, 2019 242   @ American W 70-69 43%    
  Jan 05, 2019 171   Bucknell L 73-76 49%    
  Jan 09, 2019 216   Army L 73-74 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 260   @ Navy W 67-65 46%    
  Jan 16, 2019 300   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-68 53%    
  Jan 19, 2019 209   Colgate L 69-70 58%    
  Jan 23, 2019 242   American W 70-69 62%    
  Jan 26, 2019 185   @ Lehigh L 73-76 32%    
  Jan 30, 2019 206   Holy Cross L 64-65 57%    
  Feb 02, 2019 209   @ Colgate L 69-70 38%    
  Feb 06, 2019 293   Lafayette W 74-70 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 171   @ Bucknell L 73-76 30%    
  Feb 13, 2019 216   @ Army L 73-74 39%    
  Feb 16, 2019 185   Lehigh L 73-76 51%    
  Feb 18, 2019 206   @ Holy Cross L 64-65 36%    
  Feb 23, 2019 300   Loyola Maryland W 72-68 72%    
  Feb 27, 2019 293   @ Lafayette W 74-70 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 260   Navy W 67-65 66%    
Projected Record 14.5 - 15.5 9.1 - 8.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.9 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 4.1 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.9 1.8 0.3 8.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 4.2 6.3 8.3 9.4 10.7 11.3 10.6 9.9 8.6 6.9 4.4 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.1% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 84.2% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 65.4% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.4% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
12-6 10.3% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 86.6% 86.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 67.9% 65.0% 2.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.2%
16-2 1.8% 44.7% 43.2% 1.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 2.7%
15-3 2.7% 40.5% 40.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.6
14-4 4.4% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.2 0.0%
13-5 6.9% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 5.5
12-6 8.6% 15.4% 15.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 7.3
11-7 9.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.1
10-8 10.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.1
9-9 11.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.9
8-10 10.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-11 9.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
6-12 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-14 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.4% 8.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 3.5 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 96.6% 6.1 93.1 3.4